What to expect from a player next season

A projection here is never an opinion. For every player we look up the players who made the same kind of move before — same level of league, same role, same age bracket — and read off what happened to them. With enough of those cases, the pattern is the forecast.

That gives two things, and they are not equally certain. The direction — up or down — is the confident part: when the board says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time. The range is deliberately wide, because a player's exact figure cannot be pinned down, only the band he is likely to land in.

Every call is then held against what actually happened. Across the 2025-26 EuroLeague board, 73% of up-or-down calls turned out right — 87% of the ones the board was confident about — and 80% of players landed inside their range. Where the model has no case to lean on, it says so instead of guessing. Read the full methodology →