How to read this board
Two things are shown, and they are not equally certain. The rise-or-fall call is the stronger of the two: when the board says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time. The expected range is wider than a single number would be, because that is honest — a player's exact figure cannot be pinned down, but the band he is likely to land in can.
Every number is earned before it is shown. The range is built from how far off the model was on players who arrived in earlier seasons, then applied here unchanged. So the hit rate below is a real score, not a claim.
How often is it right? Every metric carries its own score, shown in the cards above the table: how often the up-or-down call was correct on players who arrived in earlier seasons, and how often it was correct on the calls the board was sure about. Some numbers are easier to call than others, and the score tells you which.
Where a miss usually comes from. A player who arrives from a big role at home often gets far fewer minutes in the EuroLeague. That alone pulls the shooting numbers down, even when nothing about the player got worse. For TS%, FG% and 3P% the cards show what happened to earlier arrivals in the same situation, so you can tell the two apart.
“Below sample threshold” means the player did play, but took too few shots or free throws for that particular statistic to mean anything. It is not a zero.
| Player | Move | Group | Last season | Rise or fall | Expected range | Range vs. actual | Actual |
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